Key highlights from the first quarter: 

• The Greater Montreal Area’s aggregate home price increased 4.5% year over year, while the greater Toronto and Vancouver markets recorded declines of 5.7% and 4.1%, respectively, in the fourth quarter. 

• Quebec City recorded the highest year-over-year aggregate price increase (13.2%) among Canada’s major regions for the seventh consecutive quarter.

• Royal LePage expects spring market activity to rise, but not surge, as buyers re-engage amid reduced borrowing costs and improved housing affordability.

TORONTO, April 16, 2026 –Canada’s spring housing market got off to a slow start, with momentum tempered by economic and geopolitical uncertainty, and the lingering effects of a long and snowy winter. However, activity began to pick up in recent weeks.

According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Forecast released today, the aggregate[1] price of a home in Canada decreased 2.0% year over year to $812,900 in the first quarter of 2026. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, however, the national aggregate home price remained relatively flat, increasing just 0.7%.

“In a typical spring, Canada’s housing market would already be gaining momentum, but persistently low consumer confidence remains a drag on activity – especially in our most expensive markets,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “That hesitation is being driven by uncertainty beyond our borders. The inflationary impact of America’s war with Iran is pushing energy prices higher, with ripple effects across the broader economy, while ongoing trade negotiations ahead of the CUSMA review are adding to concerns about economic stability and job security. For many Canadians, the headlines are hard to ignore.”

That sentiment can be seen in a Bank of Canada survey conducted in the fourth quarter of 2025, where Canadians were asked when they believe Canada–U.S. trade tensions had – or will have – the greatest impact on the economy and inflation. Half of respondents (50%) indicated that the most significant effects are still to come, while 27% believe the worst has already passed.

“Three factors figure prominently in today’s sluggish market: hesitant first-time buyers, a return to sell-before-buy behaviour, and limited inventory in several key markets,” added Soper. “First-time buyers are the engine of the housing market, and when they pause, it ripples through every segment. Move-up buyers are also taking a more measured approach, often choosing to sell before committing to their next purchase; a behaviour we haven’t seen in years. In some regions, however, the issue isn’t demand – it’s supply.

“What’s clear is that many Canadians still intend to move. Our sales professionals, working with buyers and sellers every day, are approaching the spring and summer markets with cautious optimism.”

According to the central bank, nearly one third (29%) of Canadians said they were likely to move within the next 12 months, up from 22% from a year earlier. Similarly, 20% of homeowners said they were likely to sell their home within the next year, up from 14%

Interest rate trajectory uncertain as inflation risks reappear

Rising energy costs, driven by the escalating conflict in Iran, have introduced renewed uncertainty into the interest rate outlook, which may lead to a shift in market activity. With inflation currently sitting within the Bank of Canada’s target range, and unemployment ticking up in recent months (6.7% in February and March), the overnight lending rate has remained on hold at 2.25% since last October. However, the risk of inflation reaccelerating has brought the possibility of future rate hikes back into focus.

“With inflation pressures resurfacing, the Bank of Canada has no room to lower interest rates further – and the next move could be upward,” said Soper. “For buyers planning to enter the market this year, securing a mortgage pre-approval sooner rather than later is a prudent step, particularly as rate holds have a limited shelf life. As that reality sets in, we expect more buyers to come off the sidelines through the spring and summer months.”

New construction industry receives boost from government spending

Canada’s new construction sector has faced sustained headwinds in recent years, driven by subdued investor demand in the condominium market, the rising cost of labour and materials, elevated borrowing rates and cuts to immigration. While housing starts increased 6% year over year in 2025, much of that growth was driven by an increase in purpose-built rental construction. According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the number of rental units under construction in 2025 reached nearly double the 10-year average, with record levels reported in Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa, Halifax and Montreal.

Significant government investment, however, could help re-energize both the new construction and resale markets by supporting much-needed supply and improving overall market confidence.

In March, applications opened for the First-Time Home Buyers’ GST/HST Rebate, allowing eligible buyers to recover up to 100% of the federal sales tax on qualifying new construction homes, up to a maximum of $50,000. The Ontario government has taken it a step further, agreeing to match the federal incentive by crediting the provincial portion of HST, meaning first-time buyers can save up to a total $130,000. In addition, the two governments announced the Canada–Ontario Partnership to Build, a cost-shared investment of close to $9 billion over the next decade to cut development costs and boost housing development.

“For years, Royal LePage has been clear: reducing development costs and cutting unnecessary red tape are essential to improving housing affordability,” said Soper. “Canada’s housing shortage is the result of years of underbuilding, and the only way to close the demand-supply gap is to get more shovels in the ground. This won’t happen if the cost of building remains unsustainable.

“The new federal-provincial government-led initiatives are a meaningful step toward getting projects moving again. But we must stay focused on outcomes. Building more housing – and, critically, building the right types of homes that Canadians can grow into – is essential to the long-term health of both the housing market and the broader economy.”

Forecast

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 1.0% in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year.

Regional Summary - Greater Vancouver

The aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver decreased 4.5% to $1,174,500 year over year in the first quarter of 2026. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased modestly by 0.4%.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 5.7% year over year to $1,660,800 in the first quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium decreased 4.8% to $729,000 during the same period.

“The market has been on a gradual upswing in recent months as we approach the spring season. In March, transaction volume increased, notably month over month, suggesting that consumers are beginning to re-engage. We’re also seeing the return of multiple offers and stronger foot traffic at open houses, and anecdotally, agents are reporting increased activity,” said Randy Ryalls, managing broker, Royal LePage Sterling Realty. “Buyers are engaged and responding to well-priced, well-presented inventory. We’re also continuing to see a higher number of ‘subject to sale’ offers, which indicates that both move-up and downsizing buyers are present in the market.”

In the city of Vancouver, the aggregate price of a home decreased 3.9% year over year to $1,366,800 in the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 5.4% to $2,160,400, while the median price of a condominium declined 4.6% to $780,100.

Ryalls added that a significant share of active listings in Greater Vancouver have undergone price adjustments or expired, indicating that many sellers are still working to align their pricing with current market conditions.

“Signs are pointing to a stronger spring market in 2026, with rising buyer traffic, declining days on market, and renewed interest offering early momentum – though this likely won’t result in price increases for some time. The key challenge will be aligning buyer and seller expectations, which will be critical to unlocking more consistent activity in the months ahead,” said Ryalls. “At the same time, geopolitical and economic uncertainty will continue to play a role, with many consumers closely watching the headlines as they navigate their next move.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver will decrease 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year. 

Royal LePage Q1 2026 National House Price Composite: Click Here

[1] Aggregate prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values of all housing types collected. Data is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions and includes both resale and new build.