Key Highlights From the Release Include:

• The national aggregate home price increased by 2.1% year over year in Q1 2025, and by a modest 1.2% compared to Q4 2024.

• Greater Vancouver experienced declines in aggregate home prices of 2.7% and 0.7%, respectively.

• Quebec City led the country in price growth, with a 17.0% year-over-year increase in Q1—the highest among major regions for the fourth consecutive quarter.

• Amid ongoing economic and political uncertainty, Canadians are divided on their confidence in the economy: 49% feel confident, while 43% do not.

• Quebecers are the most optimistic, with 65% expressing confidence in the Canadian economy, while only 34% of respondents in Manitoba and Saskatchewan share that sentiment.

TORONTO, April 15, 2025 – According to the Royal LePage® House Price Survey and Market Forecast released today, the aggregate price[1] of a home in Canada rose 2.1% year over year to $829,400 in Q1 2025. On a quarterly basis, the national aggregate home price was up a modest 1.2%.

While housing market activity has been slower than expected in early 2025—particularly in Ontario and British Columbia—markets in Quebec, the Prairies, and much of Atlantic Canada are experiencing notable price growth. This is being driven by strong demand, limited inventory, and relative affordability despite persistent geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.

“Canada’s housing market entered 2025 with mixed momentum,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “Softer sales in Ontario and B.C. reflect consumer caution amid economic headwinds, while other regions show surprising resilience fueled by pent-up demand, falling interest rates and chronically low supply. It’s a classic sign of a market in transition.”

A recent survey by Royal LePage, conducted by Burson[2], found Canadians are divided on their economic outlook: 49% expressed confidence in the economy (just 6% were very confident), while 43% said they were not. Confidence was highest in Quebec and lowest in the Prairies, with Fort McMurray, Alberta, registering the most pessimistic response—75% of residents saying they lack confidence in the economy.

“The typical spring market hasn’t taken off as strongly as anticipated, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty is a major factor,” said Soper. “The new U.S. administration’s aggressive rhetoric and protectionist policies have shaken public confidence. Although Canada avoided blanket tariffs, targeted duties on steel and aluminum, along with remarks questioning Canada’s sovereignty, have cast a shadow.”

However, signs of stabilization are emerging. A recently announced 90-day pause on new tariffs opens the door to renewed diplomacy. The appointment of Pete Hoekstra, a former U.S. congressman with deep ties to Canada, as U.S. ambassador is also being seen as a positive step. “His early affirmations of Canada’s sovereignty and partnership with the U.S. provide hope for a more constructive path forward,” Soper said.

Among Canadians planning to buy a home this year, 49% said the trade dispute with the U.S. has delayed their plans. Of those, 37% cited concerns about rising living costs, 30% feared making a major purchase amid instability, and 14% were waiting for a potential drop in home prices.

“Despite the uncertainty, Canada’s real estate fundamentals remain solid,” said Soper. “Real estate activity typically rebounds quickly once confidence returns. And the upcoming federal election may bring clarity, especially as housing policy ranks among voters’ top concerns.”

Q1 2025 Housing Data by Property Type:

• Single-family detached homes: median price up 2.8% year over year to $868,700

• Condominiums: median price up 1.0% to $598,000

• Quarter-over-quarter, both segments saw slight increases of 1.5% and 0.9%, respectively

Data is sourced from RPS Real Property Solutions and includes both resale and new-build homes across 64 major markets.

Economic Outlook:

Global markets remain volatile as U.S. tariff threats continue to disrupt trade. Still, Canada’s diversified economy, sound regulatory environment, and strong financial institutions are helping it navigate the uncertainty. The Bank of Canada, which has cut interest rates by 225 basis points since June 2024, now holds its key rate at 2.75%. More cuts could follow later in the year.

“Canada has faced tough times before—be it the 2008 crisis or the COVID-19 pandemic—and has emerged stronger,” Soper noted. “The housing market continues to serve as a stabilizing force, with low default rates and sustained price stability.”

Election 2025: Housing Policy in Focus

With Canadians heading to the polls in less than two weeks, housing affordability is a top election issue. Major parties have proposed various solutions:

• Liberal Party: Double homebuilding pace, offer low-cost financing for affordable housing, drop GST for first-time buyers on homes up to $1M

• Conservative Party: Cut development taxes, convert federal buildings into housing, drop GST on new homes under $1.3M, defer capital gains tax for reinvestments

• NDP: Double home construction, provide public-backed low-interest mortgages for first-time buyers, restrict corporate purchases of rental housing

• Bloc Québécois: Repatriate federal housing funds to Quebec, offer down payment support for first-time buyers, remove GST on certain home-buying services, discourage home flipping

“Long-term solutions require collaboration across all levels of government,” Soper said. “While current initiatives may provide short-term relief, addressing Canada’s chronic housing supply shortage demands sustained and serious commitment.”

Forecast:

Royal LePage is forecasting a 5.0% year-over-year increase in the aggregate home price in Q4 2025. This is a slight revision from earlier projections, reflecting the current slowdown in Ontario and B.C., but moderate price growth is still expected nationwide in the second half of the year.

REGIONAL SUMMARY - Greater Vancouver:

In the first quarter of 2025, the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver edged down 0.7% year over year to $1,230,100. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, prices remained virtually unchanged, rising just 0.1%.

By property type, the median price of a single-family detached home rose a modest 0.6% annually to $1,761,100, while the median price of a condominium declined 1.7% to $765,500.

“March got off to a strong start, and while the spring market hasn’t fully gained momentum, we anticipate activity to increase in May and June—barring further escalation of trade tensions with the U.S.,” said Randy Ryalls, managing broker, Royal LePage Sterling Realty. “There’s certainly some hesitation in the air, particularly in areas tied to resource-based economies outside the Lower Mainland, but confidence within the core market remains intact.”

A recent Royal LePage survey, conducted by Burson, shows 50% of Vancouver respondents are not confident in the national economy, while 41% say they are, including 7% who report being very confident. Among those planning to buy a home in the region this year, half say the trade dispute with the U.S. has delayed their purchase plans, while the other half say it has not.

Ryalls noted a rise in housing inventory—encouraging news for buyers who have long faced a supply-constrained market. “Even with more listings coming online, we don’t expect significant price shifts,” he said. “For the first time in a while, we’re seeing more ‘subject to sale’ offers, which shows sellers feel confident about their ability to find a new home after selling.”

Within the city of Vancouver, the aggregate price of a home rose 1.4% year over year to $1,422,600 in Q1 2025. The median price of a single-family home increased 1.3% to $2,282,700, while the median condominium price fell 3.1% to $817,900.

According to the Greater Vancouver Realtors’ March report, sales volume fell more than 13% year over year—marking the slowest March since 2019 and landing nearly 37% below the 10-year seasonal average. However, activity ticked up slightly from February.

“We still expect a busier spring market, even if it’s arriving later than usual,” said Ryalls. “Assuming trade negotiations don’t deteriorate further, we anticipate a modest increase in prices and stronger sales activity through the season.”

Royal LePage is forecasting a 2.5% year-over-year increase in Greater Vancouver’s aggregate home price in Q4 2025. The forecast has been slightly revised downward to reflect current market softness.

Click Here to View the Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart
Click Here to View the Royal LePage Forecast Chart

Click Here to View the Consumer Confidence Survey Chart

1 Aggregate prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values of all housing types collected. Data is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions and includes both resale and new build.

2 Burson used the Leger Opinion online panel to survey 2,417 Canadians, aged 18+ between April 2, 2025 and April 9, 2025. No margin of error can be associated with a non-probability sample (i.e., a web panel in this case). For comparative purposes, a probability sample of 2,417 respondents would have a margin of error of ±2%, 19 times out of 20.