Key highlights from the second quarter: 

• The national aggregate home price flatlined, rising a modest 0.3% year over year in Q2 2025, and declining 0.4% over Q1.

• Greater Montreal Area’s aggregate home price increased 3.5% year over year, while the greater Toronto and Vancouver markets recorded declines of 3.0% and 2.6%, respectively in the second quarter.

• 38 of the 64 cities in the report saw year-over-year prices rise or remain roughly flat, while 26 markets saw home prices decline – a majority of which are in the province of Ontario.

• For the fifth consecutive quarter, Quebec City leads the country in aggregate price appreciation, increasing 13.5% year over year in Q2.

• Royal LePage® lowers its national year-end forecast modestly, with prices now expected to increase 3.5% in Q4 2025 over the same quarter last year.

TORONTO, July 15, 2025 – According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Forecast released today, the aggregate[1] price of a home in Canada eased upwards modestly in the second quarter of 2025, increasing 0.3% year over year to $826,400. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the national aggregate home price decreased by 0.4%.

This year, the spring housing market — usually one of the busiest seasons for real estate — got off to a slower start in several areas, especially in Toronto and Vancouver, two of Canada’s largest and priciest markets. Ongoing global economic and political uncertainty led many buyers to take a cautious, wait-and-see approach. The Bank of Canada also held steady, keeping its overnight lending rate at 2.75% in both April and June, citing the need for more clarity on U.S. tariffs and their potential effects. Meanwhile, sellers remained active, continuing to list their homes despite softer-than-usual market activity.

“Homebuyers approached the start of the 2025 spring market with hesitation, dampening what is typically the busiest season on the real estate calendar,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “With trade disputes, a federal election, and international conflicts dominating headlines through the first half of the year, many prospective buyers chose to wait. Yet, market fundamentals remain sound; interest is strong while activity is subdued, reflecting the uncertainty weighing on consumer sentiment. Encouragingly, June’s robust employment report may help rebuild confidence and bring more buyers off the sidelines in the months ahead.”

According to a recent Royal LePage survey, conducted by Burson, 28% of Canadians who currently rent say that, before signing or renewing their current lease, they considered buying a property rather than renting. When asked what factors influenced their decision to rent instead, 40% of respondents said they are choosing to wait for property prices to decline; 29% are choosing to wait for interest rates to decrease further; and 28% say they are working towards buying a property, and continuing to rent allows them to save for a sufficient down payment. Respondents could select more than one answer.

The spring slowdown in activity was most evident in markets across Ontario and British Columbia, where rising inventory and stagnant demand have persisted for several months. Notably, activity began to pick up in the final weeks of the quarter – a break from the usual seasonal slowdown and an early signal that market momentum may be shifting.

“Canada has always been a ‘market of markets,’ and that reality is on full display in 2025,” said Soper. “Most regions saw modest year-over-year price growth this spring, with Quebec in particular outperforming other provinces, posting growing sales volumes and robust price appreciation. Cautious consumer sentiment in Toronto and Vancouver – the country’s most expensive housing markets – continued to weigh heavily on national average calculations in our second quarter report. Toronto posted a strong rebound in activity from mid-May through June, while sales activity in Vancouver stabilized in the final month of the quarter – early signs that confidence is returning. These conditions underscore the importance of interpreting national housing trends through a local lens.”

Q2 2025 Housing Data by Property Type:

• Single-family detached homes: median price increased 1.1% year over year to $870,200

• Condominiums: median price decreased 0.2% to $592,000

• Quarter-over-quarter, home prices continued to flatline with median prices of a single-family detached home increasing by just 0.2% and condominiums decreasing a modest 1.0%

Data is sourced from RPS Real Property Solutions and includes both resale and new-build homes across 64 major markets.

“With borrowing costs stable and inventory levels continuing to build, the foundation is in place for a stronger market this fall – and signs of renewed confidence are beginning to emerge,” noted Soper. “After a market slowdown, there’s always the risk that a sudden surge in demand could reignite uncomfortable levels of house price inflation. But, unlike previous cycles, inventory is higher than recent norms, which should help absorb returning demand and keep price appreciation in check. This makes for a healthier, more balanced recovery as buyers come back into the market.”

Affordability is improving in Canada’s most expensive markets

The combination of salaries increasing while borrowing rates decline and home prices stagnate has resulted in improved affordability in Canada’s housing market; particularly in Ontario and British Columbia. As home prices have moderated from their all-time high in early 2022, wages have steadily increased. Between April 2022 and April 2025, national average weekly earnings have risen 11.8%. Meanwhile, Canada’s aggregate home price has declined 3.6% from its peak.

“Housing affordability has already begun to improve. Wage growth is outpacing home price gains in many markets, and borrowing costs have eased over the past year. But these gains remain fragile – sustainable affordability hinges on our ability to significantly boost Canada’s housing supply over the long term,” said Soper.

New Liberal government faces familiar housing challenges

In April, for the first time in nearly a decade, Canada swore in a new Prime Minister. Mark Carney now faces the same pressing challenge as his predecessor: restoring housing affordability. It will be a key test for his leadership and his government’s long-term economic strategy.

“Policy support that accelerates permitting, expands infrastructure investment, and incentivizes purpose-built rental development will be essential to meeting long-term housing demand,” noted Soper. “Affordability gains will only be possible if supply keeps pace with household formation. All eyes are now on the government’s fall budget for a clear roadmap to support housing development, investment and economic stability.”

In the week leading up to the federal election, Royal LePage asked Canadians to identify the most important issues they wanted to see prioritized. According to results of a survey, conducted by Burson, 86% of respondents selected the economy and cost of living as one of their top five priorities; more than a third (36%) selected it as their most important priority. Other top priorities included health care (75%), housing (62%), government spending and taxes (56%), international trade (42%) and immigration (35%). Respondents selected and ranked their top five priorities.

Forecast

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised down modestly to reflect slower-than-usual sales activity in Ontario and British Columbia. Nationally, home prices are forecast to see modest appreciation throughout the remainder of the year, with sharper gains expected in the fall.

“Given the backdrop of global economic uncertainty and cautious sentiment at home, we expect steady but uneven progress across regional markets this summer, rather than a broad-based rally. If optimism continues to build and Canadians feel more secure about the economy – and our ability to successfully manage the country’s relationship with the United States – we could see a more confident and active housing market emerge later this year,” concluded Soper. 

Regional Summary - Greater Vancouver

The aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver decreased 2.6% to $1,218,600 year over year in the second quarter of 2025. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased 0.9%. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 2.4% year over year to $1,740,400 in the second quarter of 2025, while the median price of a condominium decreased 2.3% to $759,400 during the same period.

“The spring market has failed to gain significant momentum in Vancouver. Supply continues to far outpace demand, with the number of active listings reaching the highest level since 2008. While the market presents opportunities, buyers are showing little urgency. Many are adopting a wait-and-see approach, anticipating further price declines and holding out for better deals. We’ve also seen an increase in subject-to-sale offers – deals conditional on the buyer selling their own home – which continues to weigh on overall transaction volumes,” said Randy Ryalls, managing broker, Royal LePage Sterling Realty. “Condos and townhomes, however, have demonstrated some resilience. These segments are attracting entry-level millennial buyers, particularly units that are priced competitively and presented well.”

Ryalls noted that demand for new construction has slowed, leaving hundreds of new condominium units still available on the market, many of which would typically attract investor interest. Tighter regulations around foreign buyers and rental properties have contributed to a less favourable environment for investors, prompting some to redirect their capital to other provinces.

In the city of Vancouver, the aggregate price of a home decreased 1.9% year over year to $1,411,200 in the second quarter of 2025. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 1.6% to $2,257,600, while the median price of a condominium declined 4.7% to $812,200.

According to the Greater Vancouver Realtors’ latest report, home sales in June declined 9.8% compared to the same month last year. While sales remained 25.8% below the 10-year seasonal average, the year-over-year decline was notably less steep than in May, which saw an 18.5% drop. On a monthly basis, sales rose by approximately eight per cent, suggesting a rebound in buyer activity.

“We’ve observed an uptick in activity heading into the summer. However, overall, the market remains in a correction phase, and we expect this trend to continue in the near term. Even if the Bank of Canada issues another rate cut, it’s unlikely to be enough to meaningfully boost buyer motivation,” said Ryalls. “That said, if a trade deal with the United States is reached and consumer confidence gradually improves, we’re hopeful the conditions will align for a stronger, more active fall market.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver will increase 1.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised down modestly to reflect current market conditions. 

Royal LePage Q2 2025 National House Price Composite: Click Here
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: Click Here

[1] Aggregate prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values of all housing types collected. Data is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions and includes both resale and new build.