According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Survey Forecast released today, if the strict stay-at-home restrictions are eased during the second quarter Canada's aggregate home price could grow a modest 1% by the end of 2020, to $653,800. If the restrictions on personal movement continues through summer, the home prices to go down by 3%, to $627,900 year-over-year.
"The impact of COVID-19 on the Canadian economy has been swift and violent, with layoffs driving high levels of unemployment across the country. While is it sad that these people skewed strongly to young and to part-time workers, for the housing industry, the impact of these presumably temporary job losses will be limited as these groups are much less likely to buy and sell real estate," said Phil Soper, president, and CEO, Royal LePage.
What about Greater Vancouver?
The aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver decreased by 2.1% year-over-year to $1,083,166 in the first quarter of 2020. Categorized based on housing type, the median price of a two-storey home decreased 1.1% year-over-year to $1,402,395, while the median price of a condominium and bungalow decreased 2.5% and 4.2% to $636,012 and $1,182,420, respectively.
"While the region had not quite returned to the 10-year average in home sales, the Greater Vancouver housing market was on a path for a vibrant spring market. We were seeing consumer confidence grow from the healthy demand seen in the entry-level segment that was extending upwards through the mid-range properties. We expected this upward trend to continue," said Randy Ryalls, managing broker, Royal LePage Sterling Realty. "Amid COVID-19 concerns, Greater Vancouver's real estate activity began to slow in mid-March. While we do not know the duration of the pandemic, demand is still there and waiting for regular market activity to resume."
The aggregate price for a home in the City of Vancouver rose 1.0%, to $1,245,608 year-over-year in the first quarter of 2020, driven by a gain of 4.9% in the median price of a two-storey home. Both the median price of a bungalow and condominium declined year-over-year during the same period.
If business activity resumes by the end of the second quarter, Greater Vancouver may see a year-over-year gain of 0.5% to its aggregate home price by the end of 2020, rising to $1,086,800. If business activity resumes in late summer 2020, the region could see a decrease of 2.5% year-over-year in aggregate home price ($1,054,400).