Key highlights from the third quarter: 

• In the third quarter of 2025, the national aggregate home price remained flat year over year; declined 1.2% over Q2.

• The Greater Montreal Area’s aggregate home price increased 4.9% year over year, while the greater Toronto and Vancouver markets recorded declines of 3.5% and 3.1%, respectively, in the third quarter. 

• National year-end forecast adjusted downward due to price declines in greater regions of Toronto and Vancouver, with the aggregate price of a home now expected to increase a modest 1.0% in Q4 2025 over the same quarter last year.

• Royal LePage applauds federal government’s commitment to build more housing; warns that greater efforts are needed to materially boost supply long-term.

TORONTO, October 15, 2025 – According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Forecast released today, the aggregate price [1] of a home in Canada recorded virtually no change in the third quarter of 2025, increasing just 0.1% year over year to $816,500. However, on a quarter-over-quarter basis, the national aggregate home price posted a decline of 1.2%, driven by depreciation in many major markets across the country over the summer.

“Canada’s housing market is shifting toward balance, as easing prices, rising listings and renewed rate cuts improve affordability across most regions,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “For the first time in years, buyers – especially in previously supply-strapped markets – have real choice and negotiating power. With confidence returning and further rate reductions expected into early 2026, we anticipate noticeably stronger activity by the spring.”

Following a slower-than-usual start to the year, home sales picked up late in the spring and have consistently increased over the last five months, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

“Affordability is improving and the economic backdrop remains remarkably stable, yet consumer confidence is lagging,” said Soper. “Many buyers remain hesitant – some worried about broader economic uncertainty, others waiting to see if prices dip a little further before stepping in.”

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data nationally and regionally in 64 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home increased 1.2% year over year to $860,600, while the median price of a condominium decreased 1.6% to $580,700. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the median price of a single-family detached home and a condominium declined 1.1% and 1.9% respectively. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company.

Compared to the peak of pandemic pricing in the spring of 2022, national home prices have come down by approximately five per cent, driven by depreciation in the urban centres of Toronto and Vancouver, where prices are currently sitting more than 12% below the peak. Meanwhile, home prices have continued to appreciate in Quebec, the Prairies and Atlantic Canada.

“Buyer sentiment is being influenced by a complex mix of economic and psychological factors,” said Soper. “Despite materially improved affordability in major cities, many Canadians – particularly younger ones – remain cautious amid high post-pandemic living costs, perceived job uncertainty, and general unease about our economic prospects. It’s understandable that some are waiting before making such a significant purchase.”

According to a recent Royal LePage survey, conducted by Burson, more than four in five Canadians (82%) who say they are actively working towards the purchase of their first residential property say they are planning to hold off for at least another year.

Rate relief in store for borrowers

In its scheduled September 17th announcement, the Bank of Canada cut the overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, the first rate cut since March. With trade tensions with the United States choking economic growth, the central bank’s Governing Council opted to lower the cost of borrowing. And, some economists expect there could be more cuts to come.

“Inflation has remained within the Bank of Canada’s target range for twenty consecutive months, a positive sign for the economy,” said Soper. “Unemployment has stayed manageable, yet job insecurity, particularly among younger Canadians, will persist until Canada reaches a new trade agreement with the United States. While mortgage rates remain above their pandemic lows, the Bank’s recent rate cut is easing pressure on borrowers. Rates are once again in the threes – a level that feels supportive by the standards of the past two decades.”

Federal government launches new plan for housing creation

Last month, the federal government launched Build Canada Homes, an agency focused on tackling the nation’s housing affordability crisis. An initial investment of $13 billion has been earmarked for the creation of 4,000 factory-built homes on federally-owned lands in six municipalities across the country: Dartmouth, Longueuil, Ottawa, Toronto, Winnipeg and Edmonton.

“Any effort to improve housing affordability is positive, and this initiative is a welcome start,” said Soper. “But we must keep the scale of the challenge in perspective – 4,000 homes should be seen as a catalyst, not a solution. The key to building housing at the pace Canada requires is meaningful private-sector participation. The government can clear the path and set the tone, but real progress will come when private builders, investors, and municipalities work in concert to get shovels in the ground and cranes in the sky. A temporary market slowdown doesn’t change the reality: this country still faces a profound housing shortage.”

Forecast

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 1.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised down to reflect price depreciation across Ontario and British Columbia, and slowing growth in other major markets.

“We expect the uptick in sales that began this summer to carry through the fall, setting the stage for a brisk 2026 spring market, provided consumer confidence continues to recover,” said Soper. “Prices are likely to tread water in the near term, as improved affordability and lower borrowing costs draw more buyers back to the table. Finally, the return-to-office trend should renew demand in urban cores, even as lower prices in suburban and rural communities continue to attract families – just not at the scale we saw during the pandemic.”

Regional Summary - Greater Vancouver

The aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver decreased 3.1% to $1,195,500 year over year in the third quarter of 2025. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased 1.9%.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 2.4% year over year to $1,712,800 in the third quarter of 2025, while the median price of a condominium decreased 3.4% to $742,300 during the same period.

“The Greater Vancouver market has been lagging behind Toronto in its recovery this year, but that momentum started to turn around over the summer. While sales activity is slowly improving, active listings remain well above historical averages, which continues to place downward pressure on prices – a welcome reprieve for buyers in Canada’s most expensive housing market,” said Randy Ryalls, managing broker, Royal LePage Sterling Realty. “Today, buyers have greater selection and more negotiating power, allowing many to comfortably wait on the sidelines while prices continue to adjust downward. The increase in inventory is also forcing sellers to face reality – properties not priced for the current climate are simply not competitive.”

In the city of Vancouver, the aggregate price of a home decreased 1.9% year over year to $1,383,200 in the third quarter of 2025. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 1.8% to $2,203,400, while the median price of a condominium declined 4.6% to $801,100.

“Activity is expected to pick up in the final months of the year, with a return to seasonal trends. Early indicators, including increasing open house traffic and offers being submitted on properties that have been sitting for months, suggest that patient, realistic buyers are starting to engage,” noted Ryalls. “While the recent Bank of Canada rate cut did not immediately spur significant demand, a further cut or two could be the psychological trigger needed to bring more buyers off the sidelines, particularly if fixed mortgage rates begin to come down.

“The region traditionally experiences a material drop in new listings at the end of the year. If this holds true, we could enter 2026 with a far more balanced or even constrained inventory level. This, combined with the current trend of sellers pricing more appropriately, sets the stage for a potentially firmer spring market once pent-up demand finally flows in.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver will decrease 2.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised down to reflect current market conditions. 

Royal LePage Q3 2025 National House Price Composite: Click Here
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: Click Here

[1] Aggregate prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values of all housing types collected. Data is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions and includes both resale and new build.