Discover the latest trends shaping Canada’s housing market with our Q3 2024 House Price Survey. Here’s what you need to know.

Q3 2024 Key Highlights:

• National Trends: The aggregate home price rose a modest 1.6% year over year in Q3 2024, and decreased 1.1% over Q2.

• Regional Insights: While the greater Toronto and Vancouver markets showed little change, rising 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively, Greater Montreal’s aggregate home price increased 5.2% year over year.

• Quebec City Continue to Soar: For the second consecutive quarter, Quebec City recorded the highest year-over-year aggregate price increase (10.5%) in Q3 among the report’s major regions.

• Prairie Provinces Pushes Upwards: As tight supply pushed prices upward in Q3, major markets in the prairie provinces continue to show resilience and strength.

• Future Outlook: Royal LePage expects home prices to remain stable through Q4; forecasts pull-ahead of spring market on expectation of continued easing of lending rates.

Home prices in Canada posted modest year-over-year price appreciation in the third quarter, yet decreased slightly on a quarterly basis, following sluggish activity in most – though not all – markets through the summer months. While material price appreciation may not occur in the typically-slower fourth quarter, a pull-ahead of the spring market is expected on account of improved affordability thanks to new lending regulations and further anticipated rate cuts.

“Despite three cuts to the Bank of Canada’s overnight lending rate, buyer demand nationally remains weak, particularly among two key groups: first-time homebuyers and small investors,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage. “We believe that both groups will re-enter the market in significant numbers as property values begin to rise again. With further rate cuts from the Bank of Canada likely this year, we anticipate prices will appreciate more quickly, eliminating the advantages of waiting for first-time buyers and making calculations more favourable for investors.”

Greater Vancouver 

The aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver increased a modest 0.5% to $1,233,900 year over year in the third quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased 1.4%.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 0.4% year over year to $1,754,500 in the third quarter of 2024, while the median price of a condominium increased 0.2% to $768,600 during the same period.

“The Greater Vancouver market has remained relatively steady through the third quarter, with September showing similar patterns to the summer months. We didn’t see a significant bump in activity and prices dipped just slightly compared to the second quarter,” said Randy Ryalls, general manager, Royal LePage Sterling Realty. “The slow activity across all segments can largely be attributed to buyers sitting on the fence waiting for further interest rate reductions, without any real urgency to make a move just yet.”

Ryalls noted that the detached home segment in particular continues to experience weaker demand, and remains firmly in buyer territory today.

“Interest rates are anticipated to continue their downward trend, and while the cuts so far haven’t sparked a surge in activity, a more substantial drop – a 50 basis point decrease – could have a more noticeable impact on the market. Many potential buyers are waiting for the bottom before making their move,” added Ryalls. “With inventory continuing to grow, this is an optimal environment for those who are ready to buy – prices are holding flat and there are more properties to choose from.”

In the city of Vancouver, the aggregate price of a home increased 0.6% year over year to $1,409,800 in the third quarter of 2024. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 1.1% to $2,244,400, while the median price of a condominium remained virtually flat, increasing 0.2% to $839,600.

“Between now and the end of the year, I expect activity to remain fairly flat. However, Vancouver’s market trends tend to shift quickly, and if buyer urgency and activity reverse course, I wouldn’t be surprised to see an uptick in prices as well.”

We are forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver will increase 3.0% in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised downward to reflect current market conditions.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2024
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2024

Explore detailed insights into Canada’s evolving housing market, the impact of economic policies, and projections for the remainder of 2024. For more detailed findings and expert analysis, read the full report [here].